I wish I could be proved wrong on this one but I have seen this movie before. The longer Gbagbo stays in place the more likely it is that he will not relinquish power. As it is, all the players are by nature ‘law and order’ folks that would hate see ugly scenes played out all over Abidjan. That is the transformation that happens when one attains power. Even former rebel leaders are instantly transformed into ‘law and order’ folks that prefer a more peaceful (comfortable) style of living.
There is also the ever-present issue of resources for anything involving Africa. Who will fund Ecowas to forcibly remove Gbagbo if it comes to that? The regional economic powerhouse Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan will be running for election this year. I doubt he would welcome the distraction of overseeing a war while campaigning. And by the way nothing good can come of African Union involvement. Only one word comes to mind when I hear about the AU. MUGABE! Being an outsider I am of course not privy to what other powers might be pulling the strings in the shadows. In this post Wiki leaks world I have learned that conspiracy theorists are not as crazy as I once thought.
Surprisingly, there is good news to report. All is not lost. At least Africans are attempting to take control of their own fates. In the past, you would have expected France to be making the most noise while all of Ivory Coast’s neighbors lay low. This time Ecowas was out front in condemning Gbagbo and recognizing Ouattara as the legitimately elected president. Also this time, Ivory Coast’s electoral commission declared Ouattara, an opposition candidate the winner. Both of these outcomes would have been a lot less likely only a few years ago.
So what is the end game in all of this? I suspect a Kenya-style coalition government will be hashed out sooner than later. The African Union’s chosen representative Raila Odinga of Kenya is indicative of what that union prefers. Pay no attention to the tough talk. It pains me to say it but that may not be too bad. It might not be too bad not because of democracy’s sake but because of where the continent has been. While the flames are being fanned on both sides, a power-sharing deal might do well to blunt the emotional edges on both sides. That unsatisfying Kenya precedent seems to be the new trend among Africa’s diminishing breed of strongmen. In a continent that has seen way too many wars, that is not the worst thing that could happen. Perhaps it is getting harder for African dictators to rig elections. That would be a wonderful thing. Therefore, this brand of ‘boring’ and faulty politics in Africa is a welcome thing in lieu of revolutions for which the price is usually too dear and the winners too few.
